So a new president was inaugurated last week, but let’s go back to the last time a first time president was sworn in on January 20, 2009. The Dow stood at just over 8,000. It wasn’t until a few weeks later the Dow bottomed out around 6,600. Of course for investors it would’ve been nice to know that was the bottom, but they wouldn’t have figured that out for a few weeks or even months.
What happens if we look back and see 2015 was the height of the NFL? In 2016, overall TV ratings were down 8% for the entire season, slightly better than the 14% they were down before the election. Some use Colin Kaepernick’s protest as a drop in ratings, others such as myself, simply believe it wasn’t a very good product on the field. Was it a one year anomaly or does the NFL have deeper concerns?
Now before everyone jumps down my throat following Sunday’s championship games surely high ratings and Super Bowl 51, which very well could set a ratings record, by no means do I believe the NFL is failing of a cliff anytime time soon. But consider the following.
- The Los Angeles Chargers will be playing at the Stub Hub Center, capacity 27,000, for the next two seasons. Are they going to sell out? The Rams already have trouble drawing in the Coliseum, what happens when you put two teams in the same stadium, in a city, that didn’t them to begin with?
- The Raiders are planning to move to Las Vegas. Forget about the huge conflicts of being in business with casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, does anyone think the Raiders in Vegas will be any more than just a fad? The two sets of people that would be expected to attend the games at 1PM on a Sunday are either working in the casinos or just waking up from a night, in, you know, VEGAS. Maybe the Vegas weekenders will stick around for a few more hours for a football game, but this has the feel of a hot new club, that will fade faster than the chances of any Andy Reid coached team trying to manage the clock in the waning moments of a game.
- Throw in the Jacksonville Jaguars attendance woes, Commissioner Roger Goodell’s lack of credibility and the ongoing concussion issues, it appears the NFL may have hit a peak in 2015.
Even NBA Commissioner Adam Silver is concerned with millennials ‘lack of attention span’ and trying to speed up the end of the games. Extrapolate that to what amounts to anywhere from a six to eight hour day to attend an NFL game, Not to mention the costs of parking, tickets and concessions. Will millennials love the NFL as much as the previous generations.
So while President Trump wants to ‘Make America Great Again’, we may look back to 2016 and not only see a country transforming election, but the start of the decline for the National Football League.