The Ragin’ Cajuns baseball team finds themselves in a precarious situation heading into the final weekend of the regular season. The Cajuns have an RPI of 47 before they play the ULM Warhawks in Monroe this Thursday, Friday and Saturday. And due to ULM’s ‘robust’ RPI of 247, even with a Cajuns sweep, there is a good chance the Cajuns fall into the 50’s rather than get closer to the low 40’s.
While some may look at the early season losses, the sweep by UT-Arlington or tough losses/tie to Georgia Southern/Coastal Carolina, as reasons the Cajuns may come up short of an at-large birth for the NCAA Tournament, I’m looking back to March and their three-game set with St. Peter’s as the main culprit.
At least with games on the field, there is an opposition trying to beat you. The decision to play St. Peter’s rests solely with the Cajuns. If you’re not aware, St. Peter’s is a perfect 0-35 with an RPI of 299. Since only 299 teams are ranked in the RPI, that’s dead last. Make no mistake, this does not come as a surprise. The bottom didn’t fall out of the St. Peter’s program from last year to this year following numerous graduations. The Cajuns knew exactly who they were getting when they scheduled the Peacocks. St. Peters finished 2016 10-42 with an RPI of 294. Certainly no one predicted they would go winless this season, but it’s not as if they had an RPI in the 150’s and tanked all the way to the bottom.
Thanks to Warren Nolan for doing the math. Take a look what the Cajuns RPI (click on image below to enlarge it) would be if they took off March 10-12 instead of playing the Peacocks. The RPI alone jumps from 47-36, which would appear to be good enough for an at large birth. But go a little further inside the numbers. Their out-of-conference schedule skyrockets from 48 to 3. So combine an RPI of 36 and an out-of-conference schedule in the Top 5 in the entire nation, the Cajuns would all but be guaranteed a post-season birth.
Unfortunately when you’re in the Sun Belt, scheduling is vitally important. In this case, the Cajuns would have been better off not playing a meaningless weekend series in March. Which in turn, probably would have resulted with them playing on a much more rewarding weekend in June.