Fresh off a Super Bowl run a year ago, LSU royalty Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are headed back to Louisiana to play in the Superdome on Sunday.
Despite their fantastic run a season ago, the Cincinnati Bengals find themselves sporting the same struggling record as the Saints at 2-3. On some level pundits may observe this game as a gross mismatch on paper, especially considering the absences of Michael Thomas and Marshon Lattimore.
But that would be ignoring the reality that Cincinnati has not been good at all this season. This is a winnable game for the Saints if they can exploit major areas of weakness on the Bengals.
SCORING STRUGGLES
You think the Saints offense is painful to watch? Consider that the Saints put up 23.0 points per game this season, while Cincinnati is stuck at 21.9. That’s down from 27.1 a season ago when their offense appeared unstoppable. The drop off has been considerable and it’s a major reason why the Bengals struggle to win games.
A major reason why is that teams are forcing the Bengals to beat them with someone other than Chase. Chase’s catch percentage is down over three percent this season and his yards per catch has dropped from 18.0 to 10.7. The Saints would be smart, especially without Lattimore, to double Chase and give help over the top to ensure he doesn’t break explosive plays.
O-LINE WOES
The struggles up front are well documented for Cincinnati and despite their best efforts to fix their personnel up front with major investment this offseason – things appear even worse. The Bengals average 3.3 yards per carry which is 30th in the NFL. Joe Mixon, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last season, is currently rushing for 3.1 yards per carry. This has put the passing offense in many unfavorable situations in terms of down and distance, a big reason for the lack of points.
Cincinnati has also given up 19 sacks which was 30th in the NFL through week 5. Remember how much we complained about the avalanche of sacks the Saints gave up earlier in the season? They’re at 14 by comparison. These metrics are a sign of just how bad Cincinnati has been up front. The high volume of sacks they gave up last year is consistent but they at least averaged 4.0 per carry. The Saints defensive line must capitalize and take advantage of this mismatch. The Bengals are not blocking up front.
POOR PASS RUSH
You’ll hear Saints fans talk about former draft pick Trey Hendrickson doing so well, and he is. But he accounts for two and half of the Bengals’ eight team sacks this season. They’re tied for 30th in the NFL in this department as well. While they drop many players in coverage and have good ballhawks, Andy Dalton should have time to operate.
This is another area Saints fans have been vocal about when complaining about their team – but the Saints sit at 10 sacks on the season. So again, imagine a team that’s been even worse. And while the Bengals secondary as a whole is very good, going after Eli Apple with the added time you have to throw seems like a no brainer.
In summary these problem areas are holding the Bengals back in major ways and the Saints will be aware of them. Stopping the run, limiting Chase, and attacking Eli Apple in coverage are all things the Saints will be focused on this week. If they can execute properly, they can keep this game competitive.
Ultimately Cam Jordan, Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata and others up front have a huge game this week. They have to step up and play at the level they are capable of because that is where the Saints have the biggest advantage.
And lastly, here’s another interesting stat to give you hope this weekend. Dalton is 2-0 against the Bengals since leaving, orchestrating wins for both the Cowboys and Bears against his former team. In those games, he’s gone 25 of 34 for 241 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He’s played efficient football and known exactly how to play winning football against that defense. The Saints will need more of that on Sunday.
Andrew Juge is the co-host of “The Saints Happy Hour Podcast.” He can be followed on Twitter @AndrewJuge