We all see the writing on the wall, or so we think we do.
Everyone is a sage or a guru at this point of the season. Well maybe we all don’t have it figured out, which is ok by me because I don’t even think the Astros have it all figured out.
The Houston Astros have 5 remaining position players in the hunt for 3 spots. I’m going to bury the lead on purpose here because I know where most of you all stand with The Aircraft Carrier.
Let’s start with Cooper Hummel – switch hitter, versatile on the diamond, plays LF/RF/C/DH. He does add someone who can play multiple places off the bench, as well come in a switch hitter providing depth to the lineup when inserted. He isn’t going to crush a ton of HR’s but if he can put bat to ball and move runners when in his value would be seen in his ability to hit from both sides.
The highlight here is his value all over the diamond and with no options they don’t want him exposed to waivers. It makes sense to keep him, until I dove into his numbers and looked at what role he could play I have to admit I haven’t thought much of him. Seems I have overlooked a guy that I think makes it.
Next we go to Zack Short – Utility infield glove, purely in for defensive purposes. plays 2B/3B/SS. His defense alone gives reason to pause and think What if…? Especially if the Altuve to LF experiment fails you have a guy who does sport one of the more solid middle infield gloves coming off the bench. He could help out at 2B, but many say well just put Dubon there. I think Short is the least likely of the five to make it.
Zach Dezenzo – legit bat versatile on the field as well plays 1B/3B/DH/OF a possibility. We know what Zack can do. We have seen him come up have marginal success as well, we have seen him fail. Zack came into camp dialed in and has made the FO and Manager really think about Dezenzo’s place on this ballclub.
Most would say, “Ok let’s move Tuve’ back to 2B, and Have Zack D in LF and am Smith in RF.” The only push back is you would have 2 new outfielders learning on the job. While many think it can be done, you simply don’t know how those cards play out. I expect Zack to be one of the 3 to make the Club. I just wonder in what capacity will it be? Why? Well, Espada has said that he wants him to get everyday reps if he’s on the roster.
Brendan Rodgers – 2B, former GG winner, and potential (starter with Tuve in LF) or off the bench, mainly platooning at 2B. Brendan Rodgers gives you an upgrade defensively at 2B, the former Gold Glove winner and 3rd overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft is looking to reestablish himself as an everyday player. He has seen some success at the plate in Spring Training as well. The upside to Rodgers is his glove, beyond that you leave a lot to the notion of, “Well if he can produce at the plate.”
The Astros cannot afford a slow start like they did in 2024. Is this something that factors against him, or is his defensive value enough to risk with a lack of a hit tool? We will know for sure by Wednesday.
Cam Smith – The Aircraft carrier, he can play 3B/ Exploring RF options. Bat appears to be there and ready for launch. He seems to have to mental makeup, he appears to hit all the markers you want in a major league star rookie. What he doesn’t have is reps in RF where it seems he’s destined to play when he makes his debut.
Cam Smith would make a jump quicker than any player in Astros history, even Mike Trout had more AB’s in AA before he began his career.
There are 2 factors that play into him NOT being on the Opening Day Roster. None of which have anything to do with can Cam make the jump or not. It goes down to what is the best way forward for the club. These 3 things are the Super 2 cuttoff and Service time threshold for one year, and the new CBA rules that pertain to promoting Top prospects for the Opening Day Roster.
1. When a top prospect is promoted for Opening Day the MLB now gives a full year of service time if that Top prospect finishes as the Rookie of the Year. In which case Cam Smith would have to win this award for the Astros to benefit. The question is do the Astros see Cam as the presumptive A.L. Rookie of the Year?
2. My own reason, I have said all along that Cam Smith will not be hurt by getting reps in RF everyday AB’s while waiting for his call where he storms onto the scene. It worked very well for Yordan Alvarez. The Super 2 cut off would push Cam’s arrival to mid-June. Here is an explanation of what this does. Players with between 2 and 3 years of service time and at least 86 days in the prior season can qualify for arbitration as “Super Two” players if they rank in the top 22% of service time among this group. The exact cutoff date varies annually but typically falls around 60–65 days into the season (early June). Teams may delay prospect promotions until after this date to avoid an extra arbitration year, pushing call-ups to mid-June (e.g., June 1–15).
In 2025, with Opening Day on March 27, this could be around June 5–10. – from an MLB conversation on X, Gork was asked to explain a few things. I know most don’t want to hear Cam Smith being called up Mid-June. I know the slow start for the Astros in 2024 is what most really worry about. I want what is best for the kid. I think that Zack Dezenzo has earned the right to be up. I also think the Astros are going to continue to ride this Altuve to Left Field until they cant.
If Altuve is at 2B I would love to see Zack in LF and Cam in RF. What I have learned about this team in the offseason, is this year will be unlike any we have seen in 8 years. I am reminded of the scene from Money ball where Billy Beane is confronted from his senior scout. While a scout talking to someone they sign, vs. calling up Cam Smith may be a bit of a stretch in comparison.
My main point is we DON’T know how Cam will react. I have always stood on the side of what path is best for the player and the club in the long run.
Here is my prediction The Astros put Zach Dezenzo, Cooper Hummel and Brendan Rodgers on the roster. Cam Smith to AAA, then Zack Short will test FA. Now what I want….is Cam Smith up with Zach and Altuve back at 2B.
