Evaluating quarterbacks is hard.
No, like it’s REALLY hard.
Executives in the NFL get paid six and seven figure salaries to do it, and their hit rate is still less than 50%.
Last week, Tyler Shough won his first NFL game in his second try. It was an impressive performance, and plenty of fans reacted as you might expect.
“We have our guy” and “quarterback of the future” were phrases that you likely saw thrown around from fans and media members alike.
While it makes sense to be excited after what Shough did, perhaps there needs to be a reminder of just how inexact this science is that we constantly obsess about.
In 2023, the Houston Texans took CJ Stroud with the second pick of the draft. He had an unbelievable rookie season, throwing for over 4,000 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. He led the Texans to a 9-6 record as a starter, a playoff appearance, won Rookie of the Year, and came in eighth in the MVP voting.
Year two for Stroud saw less success, and year three has been an even further dip. It has created doubt about his ability to be a top quarterback in the league, even with some factors like injured receivers being out of his control.
You have to go no further than the quarterback opposite Shough last week for another example.
Bryce Young was selected by the Carolina Panthers with the first pick of the same draft Stroud was taken in. He had a miserable first season, leading plenty to call him a “bust” right away. However, he showed signs of promise down the stretch last year, and hope was renewed. On Sunday, he was clearly outplayed by his rookie counterpart, and now many are wondering if Young is closer to the bust he was thought to be.
To make matters more confusing, Young went out the very next week and set the Panthers’ franchise record for passing yards, throwing for 448 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in a thrilling overtime win over the Falcons. Consistency is simply nowhere to be found in many quarterbacks across the league right now.
Those are players that were taken at the very top of the draft and have two and a half years’ worth of NFL starts to analyze. We still don’t know if they are any good.
These examples here don’t even include recent career revivals for players like Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, who were thought to have underachieved, got second and third chances years into their careers, and are now thriving for Seattle and Tampa, respectively.
The point here is that quarterback play has a ton of variables, and it is incredibly difficult to predict. One player’s successes or failures are likely connected to the system they are in, the players around them, and plenty more.
I will get back to Shough at this point. Sunday was a moment of hope for Saints fans. It was much needed. The franchise car has plenty of problems, and a franchise quarterback is the oil change that would get things going in the right direction.
He has a lot going for him as well. A head coach that understands the position, an offensive line that is getting more confidence, and a group of skill players that seem to be progressing.
In the game against Carolina, Shough showed improvement in one of the most criticized elements of his college tape: facing pressure. His biggest flaw in the pre-draft process was a feeling that he bails with defenders in his face, and that his footwork gets negatively affected. In the win over the Panthers, he was able to slide in the pocket, elude rushers, and even stand in, take a hit, and deliver accurate throws.
Despite the promising showing, he still needs to show what so many quarterbacks in today’s game lack: consistency. A productive afternoon in the NFL is proof that the talent exists. However, things will only get more challenging as NFL defenses learn his tendencies.
It will take far more than a nice Sunday in Carolina to know whether or not he is the tune-up that this team desperately needs.
Dawson Eiserloh is the host of “The LohDown with D-Loh” which is broadcast weekdays (1-3 PM) on ESPN 103.7 Lafayette and 104.1 Lake Charles — Southwest Louisiana’s Sports Station