The Billy Napier Buyout Bingo Card is getting closer to being fully covered in brightly colored dots.
Did you get embarrassed by an in-state rival in the season opener? Check.
Has the fanbase referred to you as Sun Belt Billy or Hill Billy? Check.
Did you express frustration by calling out fans who live in their basements? Check.
Has the coach you replaced quote tweeted posts about your failures? Check.
Did your fans boo your drunk-driving PSA during a home game? Check.
Has reports of boosters pooling money together to pay your buyout? Check.
Did media members ask you about your future as the head coach? Check.
The only thing missing is having fans put “get out” or “moving signs” overnight in the front yard of his Gainesville home.
With Florida having a bye week, Napier could be fired after Saturday’s game at Mississippi State regardless if they win or not.
If Florida Athletic Director Scott Strickland does decide to terminate Napier, the university would still owe him roughly $27 million. Not to mention, his tenure would be the shortest in program history in 100 years.
Napier was extraordinary as the head coach of the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. In four seasons, Louisiana won 40 games, lost only 12 (with more than half of those in year one), recorded three consecutive 10-win seasons, a pair of Top 25 AP Poll finishes, a win over a ranked Iowa State team on the road, a pair of conference titles and was the Sun Belt Coach of the Year twice.
That type of success, along with being part of the Nick Saban coaching tree for two national titles at Alabama, caught the attention of Power 5 programs. He was rumored to be a candidate at Mississippi State, then Auburn and there was even chatter and a push by some LSU supporters for Napier to replace Ed Orgeron.
Yet, Napier’s tenure in Gainesville has been an unmitigated disaster.
With Saturday’s two-touchdown home defeat to Texas A&M, who threw out a first-time starting quarterback and hadn’t won a SEC road game in three years, Napier’s overall record is now a dreadful 12-16 and 6-11 in SEC play. The Gators have suffered 12 losses in the last 15 games against FBS opponents, including seven straight.
Napier’s teams have been particularly mediocre inside “The Swamp,” where he is now 10-6 overall. By the way, that is already more home defeats than Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer had in their tenures calling Ben Hill Griffin Stadium home.
His first season in Gainesville featured an inexcusable loss to SEC doormat Vanderbilt and then a dreadful effort in a 27-point defeat to Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl which was the Gators’ seventh loss. But what happened after the season that may have derailed his tenure.
Top quarterback prospect Jaden Rashada flipped his commitment from Miami to Florida, but before enrolling for the spring 2023 semester, Rashada backed out because the Gator Collective was unable to make payments toward his $13.85 million NIL deal. Rashada transferred to Arizona State (he is now at Georgia) and is currently suing Florida and Napier.
Florida started off 2023 in pretty good shape but then lost its final five games, and failed to earn a bowl game berth. That placed Napier on the hottest of all hot seats, especially considering the Gators were to face one of the most daunting schedules in the country in 2024. Florida still has games against nationally ranked foes Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss.
The question is not if but when Napier gets fired. The problem for Strickland, who has yet to have a successful coaching hire, is that no one appears to be qualified to even serve as interim coach. Besides appeasing the angry fan base, will giving Napier his pink slip give the team a better chance of winning? Probably not.
If Napier is fired during or after the season, he would become the fourth straight Florida coach to not eclipse four seasons in charge. Napier would also join Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain as Nick Saban disciples to be fired as head coach of Florida.
Napier’s inability to succeed in the SEC is eerily reminiscent of two other Saban assistants who went on to take Group of Five jobs and then used them to land SEC jobs.
Derek Dooley served as tight ends coach for three seasons before becoming assistant head coach under Saban at LSU, including the 2003 National Title season. He followed Saban to NFL before taking the head coaching job at Louisiana Tech.
He led La. Tech to eight wins and an Independence Bowl win in 2008 but then dropped to 4-8 but still managed to snag the Tennessee job, where he went 15-21 over three seasons and holds the worst record of head coaches with more than two seasons in Tennessee history.
McElwain, meanwhile, served as Alabama’s offensive coordinator for back-to-back national title teams under Saban. He then took over as head coach at Colorado State, leading the Rams to back-to-back bowl games and a 10-win season in year three which he used to get the Florida job. After back-to-back SEC East Division titles (during a downturn for Georgia), the wheels came off in 2017 when the team started 3-4 and he was fired for not being able to prove the claim that death threats were made to him and some of his players.
Stickland may want to consider looking to someone who is not part of the Saban coaching tree for his next hire — if he is allowed to do so. Napier’s failed tenure so far also proves that the Florida job is not made for everyone. It may be one of the toughest in the SEC, especially considering you fight with in-state rivals Florida State and Miami and as well as Georgia and Alabama, for recruits along with enormous expectations to win big like Spurrier and Meyer.
With the exception of Spurrier’s run in the 1990s, Florida has never had long-term success that hasn’t been associated with NCAA violations or running an outlaw program.
There is no doubt that Napier is a good coach, and a good recruiter (something his predecessor simply ignored) and he runs his program the right way. Those are all truths, but the harsh reality is that Florida and the SEC may be too big of a job for him. It is the toughest football conference on the planet — and one that swims in murky waters — and has been that way for more than two decades.
Like the famed Tom Petty song that has become a modern game-day tradition in Gainesville, Napier isn’t going to “back down” from the challenge of turning things around.
But time is quickly running out from that buyout bingo card hitting, and it appears that Florida’s administration and fans may play a different Petty song, “Don’t Come Around Here No More.”
Raymond Partsch III is the co-host of “RP3 & Meche” which is broadcast weekdays (11-1) on ESPN 103.7 Lafayette and 104.1 Lake Charles — Southwest Louisiana’s Sports Station.