Astros Can Cement Limitless Future with 2015 MLB Draft Haul

If you think the Houston Astros are living a charmed life now, just wait until they’re finished with the 2015 MLB draft. It’s their ticket to ensure that their bright present will have a bright future.

But in the event that you’ve just awoken from a long nap in a cryo tube somewhere, let’s catch you up.

The first thing you must know is that, yes, the Astros are really good for a change. They finished under .500 every year from 2009 to 2014—averaging a whopping 104 losses from 2011 to 2014—but are now leading the American League with a record of 34-20.

Rany Jazayerli of Grantland can fill you in on the long version of how this happened. The short version is that the Astros have hit on shrewd investments they’ve made while, more importantly, young talent they’ve accumulated during their rebuilding phase has arrived and flourished.

That list includes homegrown stars such as hitting machine Jose Altuve, power-and-speed merchant George Springer, lefty ace Dallas Keuchel as well as recent additions such as lefty slugger Preston Tucker and fireballing righty Lance McCullers Jr. The Astros have also scored with players brought up elsewhere, namely steady righty Collin McHugh, righty slugger Evan Gattis and do-it-all center fielder Jake Marisnick.

With players like these in tow, the Astros aren’t a team built for the short term. They have more than enough building blocks to carry them for the foreseeable future.

And there are more on the way.

According to ESPN.com’s Keith Law, the Astros entered 2015 with MLB’s No. 3 farm system. Its top prizes are two former No. 1 picks in right-hander Mark Appel and shortstop Carlos Correa, and the latter is now arguably baseball’s best prospect. The 20-year-old Correa has started 2015 with a 1.010 OPS, 10 homers and 18 steals in 50 games at Double-A and Triple-A, putting himself in line for an imminent promotion.

A year ago, Sports Illustrated raised many eyebrows when it declared the Astros as the 2017 World Series champions. Given all that’s happening in Houston now, Jazayerli hit the nail on the head when he wrote, “At the time, plenty of critics mocked such foolish optimism, and even those of us who were on board with the Astros’ plan were a little taken aback by SI‘s audacity. Now, it seems that the only foolish part was saying that the Astros might have to wait until 2017 to contend.”

Put another way, the Astros don’t need to add any more talent to the organization to sustain the success they’ve found this season. They have what they need to carve out a place as an American League power.

But why settle for “good enough” when you can go for “even better”? And in just a few short days, the Astros will be in a position to do just that in Monday’s MLB draft.

That the Astros will be picking high in the 2015 draft isn’t a new trend, as they’ve had the No. 1 pick in each of the last three years. That’s what losing a whole bunch of games can do for you.

This year, however, brings a different opportunity. The Astros don’t have the first overall selection, but they do have the No. 2 pick and the No. 5 pick. One is compensation for the fact that they didn’t sign last year’s No. 1 pick, Brady Aiken, and the other comes courtesy of their 92 losses in 2014.

As Brian McTaggart noted at MLB.com, the Astros are the first team to ever hold two of the first five picks in a draft. General manager Jeff Luhnow is understandably excited about that.

“It’s a tremendous opportunity to get two of the top five players in this year’s draft. We’re spending a lot of time talking about it, looking at the players and trying to figure it out,” he said, eventually adding, “I don’t think any team has been in that position before. We can inject a lot of talent into our system, which is already pretty filled with talent, and that bodes well for the future of the Astros.”

It does indeed bode well for the future of the Astros, as having two top-five picks is arguably a better deal than having just the No. 1 pick.

Mind you, it’s not that the No. 1 pick is overrated. When Andrew Ball of Beyond the Box Score looked in 2013, he found that No. 1 picks produce an average of 11.8 wins above replacement before free agency. That’s compared to an average of 10.1 WAR for No. 2 picks and so on.

What the Astros are presumably focusing on, however, isn’t the value gap between No. 1 picks and No. 2 picks. What they should be focusing on is the value gap between top-five picks and all other picks.

Matthew Murphy of the Hardball Times tackled that last year and came up with this:

On average, the top five picks produce nearly twice as much pre-free-agency WAR as the sixth through 10th selections and roughly three times as much pre-free-agency WAR as the picks at the bottom of the first round.

So, having just one top-five pick is enough of an advantage in its own right. Having two top-five draft picks is a downright coup.

And if you’re worried about how much bonus-pool money Houston has to throw around, don’t be. Per Baseball America, the Astros have over $17 million to spend on bonuses. No other team has more than $14 million to spend.

That means the Astros shouldn’t be limited when it comes to whom they can target with the No. 2 and No. 5 picks. To that end, Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle reported last month that the club has five pitchers and six position players on its radar.

The pitchers are college right-handers Walker Buehler, Carson Fulmer, Kyle Funkhouser and Dillon Tate, and high schooler Mike Nikorak. The position players are high school shortstop Brendan Rodgers, high school outfielder Daz Cameron, high school outfielder Kyle Tucker (Preston’s brother), college outfielder Ian Happ, and college shortstops Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman.

There aren’t any surprises among this group. According to MLB.com, the lowest-ranked prospect of the bunch is Happ at No. 20. The rest are the creme de la creme, with Rodgers (No. 1) and Swanson (No. 2) being the shiniest prizes of the bunch.

Of course, the Astros don’t necessarily need Rodgers or Swanson given that they already have a pretty good young shortstop in Correa. And because of the current success of the big club, there’s also a train of thought that the Astros could prioritize high-upside high schoolers and take the time to develop them.

But neither is what the Astros are thinking.

“We don’t view it that way,” scouting director Mike Elias told McTaggart. “I think we want to make the best pick that we can, regardless of what our perceived needs or timetable or stockpiles are in the minor leagues.”

Summarized: The Astros are of the mind to use the draft to make their farm system as good as it can be and nothing more. That’s to say the approach they’re taking into the draft is the only approach that any team should ever take into the draft.

This approach won’t just serve the Astros well when they make the second and fifth picks. They also hold the No. 37 selection in the competitive balance round and the No. 46 pick in the second round.

Those aren’t the sexiest numbers, granted, but it’s not unheard of for good players to be found that low. Adam Jones was a No. 37 pick. Jimmy Rollins and Yovani Gallardo were No. 46 picks.

To be sure, there’s no guaranteeing the Astros are going to get that lucky with those two selections. But between the prospects who could be available then and the blue-chippers who will be available at No. 2 and No. 5, the Astros have a real chance to land one of the best talent hauls in the history of the draft.

And that’ll only be Day 1. The Astros will have more picks on Days 2 and 3. And in the end, they’ll funnel all their selections into a prospect pipeline that’s already factoring into the big club’s success.

When the deed is done, what’s already easy to see now will be even clearer: The Astros have arrived, and they’re not going away anytime soon.

Via-  Zachary D. Rymer , MLB Lead Writer, Bleacher Report