The 2024 Houston Astros season has not begun as planned.
Through 20 games, the team is 6-14 overall. They have won just four games in 13 tries at home. Jose Abreu is batting .078 and Hunter Brown has an ERA over 10.
It is clearly not the start that a team who has made a record seven straight ALCS appearances would expect, especially considering they brought back most of last year’s roster. The struggles are concerning, and have many fans wondering if the Astros’ run of dominance in the American League may be over.
Let’s break down some of the true reasons for concern.
For one, the Astros are 6-14 this season. Even last year, which was inconsistent at times for Houston, there was never a stretch where they lost 14 games in a 20-game stretch. The Astros have not started 6-14 since before their run of dominance began more than seven years ago.
Ryan Pressly, the Astros’ closer for the past several seasons including their World Series team in 2022, has also had an awful start to the season. He has an ERA over nine, which should not be that much of a concern in less than ten innings pitched. However, Pressly was not as dominant last year as he was in previous. Also, he was demoted from closer to set up with the acquisition of Josh Hader. Those factors combined with the loss of key middle relief options such as Phil Maton and Hector Neris, are cause for concern.
Jose Abreu massively struggled to start the 2023 season. It was arguably the worst stretch of his career. Somehow, he has been worse to start 2024. Abreu hit .235 with 0 homers in March and April last season. To start this year, he has only four hits in 51 at-bats, with none of them going for extra bases.
There are other aspects to be worried about. Chas McCormick had a breakout season a year ago, and is currently struggling with a .216 average. Hunter Brown’s development has seemingly halted, as he has fought through his first few starts and tallied an ERA over 10.
With all that being said, it is not time to panic yet.
This is an Astros team that has made a record seven straight appearances in the ALCS. They did not have a 6-14 stretch, but they went 7-13 at plenty of different points throughout the run. This season, the struggles are largely from players who have proven otherwise throughout their careers.
While there are certainly age concerns with Pressly and Abreu, there may be reinforcements at those spots anyway.
Justin Verlander is returning on Friday. Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Framber Valdez, and Lance McCullers are all on track to come back at some point this season. That should sure up the bullpen, allowing Houston to shift some roles around.
In regards to Abreu’s struggles, he did find a way to turn it around last season. If he does not, there are some prospects in the minor leagues such as Joey Loperfido, that may be able to help out at that spot.
Players like Chas McCormick and Hunter Brown are slightly more worrying, just because they are younger and were expected to produce more. However, Brown may have his role reduced when pitchers return from injury, and McCormick may go back to a platoon role if he does not improve.
Houston has also almost certainly been a victim of some bad luck this season. They are 0-5 in one run games. That is the type of statistic that tends to balance out over the course of a season. Do some of the one run losses belong to the bullpen? Certainly. But that is, after all, why the Astros made Josh Hader the richest reliever in MLB history. History tells us that will improve as things go along.
The last thing to remember is that the Astros have a first year manager in Joe Espada. He replaced one of the legends of the game in Dusty Baker. Did Baker make some questionable decisions in regards to his roster? No doubt about it. However, he was a veteran, who could keep the group together through tough times.
Why am I optimistic about Espada?
The answer is simply because he has not even had time to settle in yet. I think that as the year goes on, his confidence as a manager will grow. He also is dealing with a very experienced, battle tested roster.
No one in that clubhouse is panicking after 20 games, and you shouldn’t either.
Dawson Eiserloh is the co-host of “RP3, D-Loh & Meche” which is broadcast weekdays (11-1) on ESPN 103.7 Lafayette and 104.1 Lake Charles — Southwest Louisiana’s Sports Station.